How a teenage pregnancy prediction teaches us everything about the hidden patterns traditional LSS training misses
You probably know the Target story. A father storms into a Minneapolis Target store, furious that they’re sending his teenage daughter coupons for baby clothes and cribs.
“She’s still in high school!” he demands to the manager. “Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?”
The manager apologizes profusely. But a week later, the father calls back—this time to apologize to Target. His daughter was indeed pregnant, and Target’s AI had figured it out before he did, simply by analyzing her purchasing patterns: unscented lotions, certain vitamins, cotton balls.
Here’s what struck me about this story: Target’s algorithm saw patterns invisible to human observation. It connected dots that seemed completely unrelated. It predicted an outcome that even the people closest to the situation had missed.
This is exactly what’s wrong with traditional Lean Six Sigma training—and exactly what AI can fix.
The $2.5 Million Pattern We Keep Missing
Last month, I sat across from a Fortune 500 manufacturing VP who revealed his own uncomfortable truth: “Frank, we’ve spent $2.5 million on Lean Six Sigma training over three years. Our defect rates have barely moved.”
Like Target’s algorithm detecting pregnancy before the father did, I could see patterns in his LSS program that he couldn’t:
- Employees getting certified but reverting to old problem-solving habits
- Teams struggling to apply classroom theory to real-world chaos
- Training investments producing certificates, not capabilities
The problem wasn’t his people. The problem was that traditional training, like the human eye, misses the patterns that matter most.
The Hidden Patterns Traditional Training Can’t See
After 35+ years in this field—from my early days as USAF Management Engineer of the Year to my current role implementing LSS at RTI Surgical—I’ve identified the invisible patterns that doom traditional training:
Pattern #1: The Theory-Practice Disconnect
Traditional programs teach statistical tools in isolation, like teaching someone algebra without ever showing them how to balance a checkbook. Students memorize DMAIC phases but can’t recognize when they’re in the “Analyze” phase of a real problem.
Pattern #2: The Generic Learning Trap
Classroom case studies are sanitized and simplified. Real operational problems are messy, political, and full of variables the textbook never mentioned. When trainees return to reality, they’re paralyzed by the complexity.
Pattern #3: The Support Vacuum
Once certification ends, practitioners are on their own. No real-time coaching, no pattern recognition guidance, no safety net when they encounter their first major roadblock.
Result? Like the father who couldn’t see his daughter’s pregnancy, organizations can’t see why their training investments aren’t delivering results.
How AI Sees What Traditional Training Misses
Just as Target’s algorithm connected seemingly unrelated purchases to predict pregnancy, AI can connect the dots in LSS skill development that human-designed training programs miss entirely.
I’ve developed ProbSolveAI to see and act on these hidden patterns:
AI Sees Learning Patterns in Real-Time
While traditional training delivers one-size-fits-all content, ProbSolveAI analyzes how each individual learns and adapts accordingly. It identifies knowledge gaps before they become project failures, just like Target identified pregnancy before it became obvious.
AI Connects Theory to Real-World Application
The platform doesn’t just teach DMAIC—it guides users through DMAIC on their actual problems. It recognizes when someone is stuck in “Analysis Paralysis” and provides context-specific coaching to move forward.
AI Provides Continuous Pattern Recognition
Like Target’s algorithm running constantly in the background, ProbSolveAI continuously monitors project progress, identifying early warning signs of derailment and providing course correction before problems become failures.
Real-World Pattern Recognition: A Case Study
Let me show you how this pattern recognition works in practice:
The Situation: A medical device manufacturer was experiencing 12% defect rates. Their newly certified Green Belts had been working on the problem for 4 months with minimal progress.
What Traditional Analysis Missed: Teams were focusing on obvious causes—machine settings, operator training, material quality. Classic “drunk looking for keys under the streetlight” behavior.
What ProbSolveAI’s Pattern Recognition Revealed:
- Week 1: AI analyzed production data and identified a subtle correlation between defects and ambient temperature changes
- Week 2: Machine learning revealed that defects spiked 15 minutes after HVAC cycling—a pattern invisible to human observation
- Week 3: AI simulation tested multiple solutions, revealing that a simple process timing adjustment would eliminate 73% of defects
- Week 4: Predictive algorithms deployed to anticipate and prevent temperature-related quality issues
Results:
- 73% reduction in defects
- $300,000 annualized savings
- Team learned more about effective problem-solving in 4 weeks than 4 months of traditional approach
Like Target predicting pregnancy from lotion purchases, AI found the hidden pattern that solved everything.
The Economics of Pattern-Based Learning
Here’s how the math changes when AI can see what traditional training misses:
Traditional Approach (50 employees):
- External training costs: $1,250,000
- Lost productivity during training: $400,000
- Time to real proficiency: 12-18 months
- Success rate of first projects: 40%
- Total cost with limited results: $1,650,000
ProbSolveAI Pattern-Based Approach (50 employees):
- Platform licensing: $150,000
- Accelerated project completion: $500,000 in additional savings
- Time to real proficiency: 3-6 months
- Success rate of first projects: 85%
- Net first-year benefit: $350,000
The difference? AI sees the patterns that traditional training can’t.
Three Ways AI Pattern Recognition Transforms LSS Training
1. Personalizes Learning Paths
Just as Target’s algorithm treated each customer uniquely, ProbSolveAI adapts to each learner’s style, pace, and knowledge gaps. No more one-size-fits-all training that works for nobody.
2. Bridges Theory-Practice Gaps Automatically
The platform recognizes when someone understands a concept theoretically but can’t apply it practically—then provides targeted, contextual guidance to bridge that gap.
3. Predicts and Prevents Training Failures
Like Target predicting pregnancy, ProbSolveAI predicts when someone is likely to struggle with a concept or abandon a project—then intervenes with additional support before failure occurs.
The Strategic Pattern
The most successful organizations I work with recognize this pattern:
Companies that embrace AI-enhanced LSS training today become the operational leaders tomorrow. Those that don’t become the disrupted.
It’s the same pattern we saw with digital transformation, data analytics, and now AI adoption. The early movers gain sustainable competitive advantages that become harder to close over time.
Your Target Moment
Remember the Target father’s second phone call? The moment he realized the algorithm had seen something he’d completely missed?
Your organization is about to have its own “Target moment” with LSS training. The question is: will you be the company that discovers AI can see patterns in skill development that traditional training misses? Or will you be the competitor wondering how others got so far ahead so fast?
The companies implementing AI-enhanced LSS training are already seeing patterns and results that seemed impossible just 12 months ago. They’re developing capabilities at speeds that traditional training simply can’t match.
The pattern is clear. The choice is yours.
Have you experienced the gap between LSS certification and real-world capability in your organization? What patterns have you noticed that traditional training seems to miss? I’d love to hear your Target moment in the comments.
About Frank Shines: Master Black Belt with 35+ years of experience across aerospace, defense, healthcare, and life sciences. Currently implementing LSS at RTI Surgical and creator of ProbSolveAI. Author of “AI or Die: The Caveman’s Visual Guide to AI for Everyone.”
#LeanSixSigma #ArtificialIntelligence #TrainingROI #OperationalExcellence #ProcessImprovement #Manufacturing #ContinuousImprovement #Leadership #PatternRecognition
